North Central Research Station NFP 2000- National and Regional Fire-Weather Dynamics: Improved Methods for High Resolution Forecasting of Fire-Weather Indices and Smoke Transport

Introducing the Northern Research Station

The North Central Research Station and the Northeastern Research Station have joined to form the Northern Research Station. Our 20-state region spans the Midwest from Minnesota to Missouri and the Northeast from Maine to Maryland.

Our Research Programs in the National Fire Plan 2000

National and Regional Fire-Weather Dynamics: Improved Methods for High Resolution Forecasting of Fire-Weather Indices and Smoke Transport

Proposal title: National and Regional Fire-Weather Dynamics: Improved Methods for High Resolution Forecasting of Fire-Weather Indices and Smoke Transport

Other proposals to which this is linked (Proposal code): NC-1.1, NC-1.2, NC-1.3, Achtemeier SRS-4104-1, RMRS-MSO-4, PNW-3, PSW-Fujioka.

Research Work Units: RWU NC-4401, Atmospheric-Ecosystem Interactions and the Social Aspects of Managing Ecosystems, East Lansing, MI

Description: Research or Development Question, Issue, or Need: Fine spatial and temporal resolution weather forecasts are needed to develop useful predictions of fire-weather and smoke transport and dispersion. The National Weather Service does not produce such tools. Fortunately, however, high-resolution atmospheric mesoscale and boundary-layer models are currently being used within the USDA Forest Service and at universities, other federal, state, and private agencies, and modeling centers throughout the country for both research and operational applications. The availability of these high-resolution modeling tools provides an opportunity to develop new and improved models and decision support systems related to fire-weather and smoke transport. Internal capacity building in the Forest Service and external collaboration with these modeling centers can lay the foundation for a new national framework of regional interagency atmospheric modeling consortia focused on fire-atmosphere interaction research and the development of decision support tools for the fire management community. Efforts are already underway within the USDA Forest Service to develop these regional consortia. There is clearly a need to build a north central and northeastern U.S. component to this national framework, where regional and national fire-weather and smoke transport issues are addressed and new and improved fire-related predictive models and decision support systems can be built.

Research and Development Approach: As part of a proposed USDA Forest Service national framework for regional atmospheric modeling, as described in companion proposals from fire/atmosphere research work units in the Southern, Pacific Southwest, Pacific Northwest, and Rocky Mountain Research Stations, this North Central Research Station (NCRS) proposed research will focus on the following objectives: (1) Developing effective atmospheric mesoscale model predictions of fire-weather and fire-weather indices at the national and regional level, (2) Linking fire-weather forecast information with data obtained from the proposed Forest Inventory and Analysis' (FIA) strategic monitoring of fuel loadings and fire potentials in U.S. forests (see proposal NC-1.3) to provide improved estimates of daily wildland fire potential, and (3) Developing improved atmospheric mesoscale model predictions of smoke transport and diffusion under different prescribed and wildland fire scenarios. For objective (1), potential refinements in current fire-weather indices (e.g. Haines Index) will be explored via climatological assessments of the indices and simulations of regional fire-weather episodes. State-of-the-art atmospheric mesoscale models (e.g. MM5, RAMS, HOTMAC, UW-NMS) and computing hardware available internally or externally through consortium partners will be utilized in this effort. After testing the refined indices and assessing how well they work through fire-occurrence correlations, the refined indices will be made available for integration into operational atmospheric mesoscale forecast models (e.g. MM5, UW-NMS) that can provide forecasts out to 48 hours and possibly longer. For objective (2), daily fire-weather index forecast maps will be integrated with FIA fuel loading maps or other derived estimates of fuels loading, within a GIS framework to provide improved GIS visualization of wildland fire risk at regional and national scales. For objective (3), new smoke transport modeling techniques developed within other Forest Service modeling consortia (see proposals from SRS and PNW cited above) will be incorporated into appropriate mesoscale models for predicting smoke transport during wildland and prescribed fire episodes in the north central and northeastern U.S.

Objectives (1)-(3) are designed to address the critical need for better predictive models and decision support tools for the fire management community. Both regional and national fire-weather and smoke transport research and development needs are addressed. In recognition of the need for consistency in fire-weather and smoke transport models and decision support tools for fire managers across the U.S., the models and decision support tools developed in this effort will be compatible with similar models and tools developed within other Forest Service sponsored regional consortia. Achieving objectives (1)-(3) will also provide valuable information for companion social-science-related research proposals from the NCRS that seek to assess perceptions of fire risk and the vulnerability of rural communities to wildland fire.

First year: (1) A climatological assessment of the Haines Index for the U.S. that will describe the temporal and spatial trends and patterns of the Index across the U.S. (2) Development of a North Central Interagency Modeling Consortium composed of internal and external partners and modeling tools for addressing fire-weather and smoke transport issues.

Second year: (1) A refined Haines Index for fire-weather that can be incorporated into operational mesoscale forecast models. (2) Full integration of the refined Haines Index into an operational mesoscale forecast model. (3) Maps of 24- and 48-hour refined Haines Index forecasts available as part of the North Central Research Station's Atmospheric Disturbance Climatology System (http://www.ncrs.fs.fed.us/4401/focus/climatology/). (4) Publish one or more papers related to fire weather, index climatology for the United States.

Three to five years out: (1) Potential refinements of other fire-weather indices. (2) A GIS component within the NCRS's Atmospheric Disturbance Climatology System displaying fire-weather index forecast maps and fuel loading maps for estimating short-term wildland fire risk. (3) Mesoscale smoke transport and diffusion model capable of predicting smoke transport scenarios for the north central and northeastern U.S. (4) Web-based visualizations of different smoke transport and diffusion scenarios in the north central and northeastern U.S. (5) Publish several papers related to refined fire-weather indices, fire-weather and fuel loading patterns and trends, and smoke transport and diffusion scenarios in the north central and northeastern U.S.

Staffing needs: 1 GS-12/13 Research Meteorologist; 1 GS-9 Meteorological/Computer Technician

Description of skills required: Expertise in atmospheric mesoscale and boundary-layer modeling, including atmospheric turbulence and diffusion processes.

Potential Partners: This fire-atmosphere interaction research will be carried out in collaboration with Forest Service and external partners around the U.S., including fire and atmospheric scientists in the Southern Research Station (RWU SRS-4104), Pacific Southwest Research Station (RWU PSW-4401), Pacific Northwest Research Station (Managing Natural Disturbance Regimes Program - 4577), and the Rocky Mountain Research Station (RWU RMRS-4401). Other potential partners in carrying out the research and developing a regional modeling consortium include Dr. Paul Croft from Jackson State University, Dr. Jon Martin from the University of Wisconsin, Dr. Jerome Fast from the DOE/Battelle Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, and Dr. Gene Takle from Iowa State University.

Leveraging: Current work on the climatological assessment of the Haines Index will substantially speed development of first year products.

Team Leader: Dr. Warren E. Heilman Phone: (517) 355-7740 ext. 27 Email: wheilman@fs.fed.us