North Central Research Station NFP 2000 - Managing the risk of fire on human and ecological communities in the wildland-urban interface

Introducing the Northern Research Station

The North Central Research Station and the Northeastern Research Station have joined to form the Northern Research Station. Our 20-state region spans the Midwest from Minnesota to Missouri and the Northeast from Maine to Maryland.

Our Research Programs in the National Fire Plan 2000

Managing the risk of fire on human and ecological communities in the wildland-urban interface.

Topic(s): C-iv Reducing hazardous fuels and fire risk, ecological interactions; C-i Reducing hazardous fuels and fire risk, assessment B-i Restoring landscapes and rebuilding communities, post-fire treatments.

Proposal title: Managing the risk of fire on human and ecological communities in the wildland-urban interface.

Other proposals to which linked (Proposal code): NC-1.1, 1.3, 2.1, 2.2.1, 3.2, 3.3, 3.4

Description: Research or Development, Question, Issue, or Need: The President's Fire Plan calls for research to investigate the relationships between land management practices and the occurrence and intensity of fires. The Plan also calls for research on the effectiveness and consequences of various treatment efforts. Because vegetation treatments, natural disturbance, and the increased presence of people in forested landscapes interact to determine how fires spread across landscapes, it is critical to understand these interactions in a spatial context. Treating individual stands without considering spatial context will be less effective. Treatments may also have unintended consequences if interacting phenomena are not considered.

Our objective is to develop a sophisticated process model integrating human activities (land management treatments and human community development), natural disturbances (insects, disease, blowdowns), and wildfire that will allow the study of interactions among these phenomena. This mandates an integrated approach involving scientists from many disciplines, and is a logical extension of NC's Integrated R&D Program focused on Landscape Change. We will investigate how land management and land use changes affect the impact of fire on the human and ecological communities forming the landscape mosaic. We will produce risk maps and management guidelines to help policy-makers and land managers understand how changes in the spatial configuration of vegetation management and human community development can be used to reduce the risk of catastrophic fire.

Research and Development Approach: We propose to study the interactions between fire, land management treatments, human settlements and other disturbances by linking the results of empirical studies within a common modeling framework. The empirical work is described in more detail in linked proposals. These proposals focus on several phenomena interacting to affect fire susceptibility and spread: vegetation management (treatments (including post-fire), their effects on microclimate) (NC-2.1, 2.2.1), insect and disease outbreaks (NC-3.4), effects of blowdown events (NC-1.1, NC-2.2.1), and land use change (including changes in human populations, infrastructure and road networks) (NC-3.3). These empirical studies will provide data and relationships to improve an existing landscape disturbance and forest succession simulation model (LANDIS). LANDIS is a sophisticated process model featuring empirically derived, reciprocal relationships between forest development and disturbances. Strategic monitoring of fuel loadings and fire potentials in US forests (NC-1.3) will provide important data on initial conditions for the model. As these processes interact within the model, the impact of fire management strategies and land use change can be assessed for human communities, ecosystem health, and wildlife population viability (NC-3.2).

The NCRS and a cooperator have invested a decade in the development of LANDIS, and the forest succession (species dispersal, establishment and competition), windthrow disturbance and the vegetation management components have been tested and are very robust. However, to achieve the objectives of this proposal, significant additional development is required. More sophisticated fire spread algorithms must be incorporated, and the insect and disease module must be improved. New development of functions to model microclimate (moisture) effects of treatments, and relationships related to human development will be required.

The integrated, comprehensive modeling framework will feature a sophisticated fire ignition and spread algorithm operating at landscape scales (104 - 107 acres). The model represents landscapes as a grid of cells, and the ignition and spread of fires from cell to cell will be controlled by the condition of the forest on each cell and proximity to roads. This condition can change as a consequence of forest growth and succession, vegetation management, insect and disease outbreaks, wind damage, and human development. The model will provide the integration needed to study the reciprocal interactions among treatments, disturbance, land use change and fire behavior at landscape scales. For example, treatment recommendations for specific forest types and stand conditions will be simulated in a spatially explicit way using the vegetation management module of the model, and their effects on fire ignition rates and fire spread and intensity can be studied. However, the proposed treatments may also affect the extent of insect outbreaks, resulting in non-linear treatment effects. Furthermore, human community development may change both the treatment options that are socially acceptable and ignition rates near roads. Because the behavior of each module will be developed somewhat independently, the nature of the interactions will be an emergent property of the simulations. The model will produce predictions that can in turn be tested empirically. LANDIS can be parameterized for other ecosystems, and we are confident this approach can be extended to other parts of the country.

This proposal complements proposal NC-3.2. We will focus on studying interactions in northern hardwoods/mixed boreal forests, and will develop the insect and disease module and the human community development module. We will jointly develop enhanced fire algorithms in collaboration with RWU-4154. RWU-4154 will focus on central hardwoods fire-adapted systems and will develop the ability to evaluate LANDIS outputs to predict wildlife viability. The scope and integration of the processes proposed for these modeling efforts greatly surpass any existing capabilities.

First year: Prepare manuscript describing the effects of vegetation management alternatives on the susceptibility to fire ignition and spread using an existing input dataset for the Chequamegon NF (WI), including potential impacts on recreational opportunities and risk of loss of infrastructure on the National Forest. Fire risk maps under Forest Plan alternatives will be generated and disseminated to the Chequamegon NF.

Second year: Implementation of new algorithms in LANDIS (fire, insects & disease, human community development). Assess fire risk to public and private infrastructure within the Superior NF under alternative vegetation treatment plans. Publish effects of human development on fire risk; quantify benefits and risks of generic treatment options to wildlife and ecosystem health.

Three to five years out: Determine the relative importance of each of the interacting factors studied (e.g., treatments, insects and disease, human development) on fire risk, and publish guidelines for decision makers seeking to maximize the effectiveness of limited resources. Publish management guidelines for evaluating tradeoffs among fire risk mitigation strategies in various ecological Sections throughout the East. Produce a white paper describing findings of our study of interactions, with policy recommendations. Produce maps of fire risk under alternative land management and land use scenarios for each National Forest in the NC region. Generate risk maps of human infrastructure loss and long-term ecosystem condition predictions for specific alternative plans on real landscapes near NFs. Design adaptive management empirical tests of the alternative shown by the model to best mitigate fire risk. Improve LANDIS user interface and train NFS personnel to evaluate vegetation and fire management alternatives.

Staffing needs: 1 permanent scientist (GS-408-12/13) - disturbance ecologist / modeler. Both RWUD problems have a disturbance component. 1 technician / C++ programmer (GS-334-9/11). Unit currently has inadequate model and programmer support.

Description of skills required: The disturbance ecologist must have experience in spatial modeling, GIS, spatial statistics, landscape ecology. The technician must have experience in GIS, C++ programming; spatial statistics background desirable.

Potential Partners: Dr. David J. Mladenoff, Univ. of Wisconsin; Dr. Hong He, Univ. of Missouri; Wisconsin, Minnesota and Michigan NFs.

Funding requested: Funding to RWU-4153 of $332,000 per year. Includes funding for 1-2 RJVAs over 5 years.

Team Leader(s): Eric Gustafson, Project Leader. Phone: (715) 362-1152 Email: Eric Gustafson